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Showing posts with label Insurgencies. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Insurgencies. Show all posts

Monday, October 29, 2007

War Pages Articles





All earlier posts can be read using the previous post button at the bottom of my old blog

Saturday, May 05, 2007

Violence Unlikely to End in Somalia

Days long calm in the capital brings slight relief, but unless something changes more violence looms

By Liam Bailey (Published OhmyNews 30/04/07)

1300 people have died in the fighting in Somalia's capital Mogadishu since February, mostly civilians. The violence has been ebbing and flowing since the Ethiopian military helped the Transitional Federal Government forces to oust the Union of Islamic Courts Dec. 2006.

The U.I.C had swept to power in Mogadishu and most of southern and central Somalia, mid-2006, replacing 15 years of widespread anarchy with their brand of socially restrictive calm. Now they have gone, the capital is facing an insurgency of their remnants, which is responsible for much of the violence.

However rival clans jostling for power; the cause of the anarchy before the U.I.C. took control, have returned to take up their part in the current violence. Adding Ethiopian troops to the mix, which are deeply hated by most Somalis, as well as one clan's predominance in the government and its ill-advised policies, we can only hope the current violence doesn't last another fifteen years.

Most of the 1300 dead have been civilians. In fact so many civilians have been killed that reports in the press are calling their "massacre" a "war crime", because of the government and Ethiopian's heavy shelling and air-strikes in populated areas. According to the same reports: the U.S.' logistical and direct support of the Ethiopian and T.F.G. actions makes them equally guilty of any war crimes. An example of just how, either indiscriminate or grossly careless their methods for dealing with the insurgency are came April 25, when Mogadishu's S.O.S. children's hospital was struck in an Ethiopian mortar attack.

Some believe the pounding of civilian areas is a deliberate and determined effort to intimidate the families of those involved in the fighting. Whatever the reason, according to U.N. estimates the government/Ethiopian shelling of civilian homes and hospitals has seen an estimated 340, 000 people fleeing the capital and camping on the outskirts of Mogadishu -- in areas recently racked by severe flooding after prolonged droughts. This has sparked fears of a cholera outbreak among the refugees with 40 confirmed cases as of mid-April, with that and other diseases killing 593 people.

The latest fighting ceased Apr. 27 after nine days of heavy fighting. There were yet more reports of dozens of bodies rotting in the streets with the fighting too intense to safely retrieve them. A situation that will only help outbreaks of disease spread like wildfire and with the situation on the ground too dangerous for any serious humanitarian efforts, the death toll could escalate rapidly.

The lull in fighting since Friday allowed the dead to be retrieved and a small contingent of aid workers into the capital with food, medical supplies and blankets for the refugees -- altough some of the refugees have taken advantage of the calm and returned to their homes. The guns falling silent also brought claims by T.F.G. leader Abdullahi Yusuf that they had defeated the insurgents, but "western" diplomats speaking on condition of anonymity said that although the insurgents had been weakened and were lacking ammunition they had not been defeated. Most analysts predict that the trend will continue: the insurgents will lie low, regroup and re-emerge with a fresh, even more intense wave of attacks.

This fear can be seen in Ethiopia's latest way of dealing with the fighting. Reports by UNICEF and international reporters tell of Ethiopian and T.F.G. forces doing house to house searches and arresting dozens of men of fighting age -- whether they are known combatants or not. Those reports went hand in hand with reports of a decentralized Gauntanamo in the horn of Africa, holding hundreds of young African males without charge or adequate legal representation -- pending interrogation and possibly torture.

Another trend that is continuing in Somalia is the low likelihood of a permanent end to the fighting. The African Union has taken charge of pacifying Somalia, but the proposed 7000 strong AU force is still only 1500 Ugandan troops. Although, how even 7000 African Union troops are supposed to quell an insurgency that 20,000 well funded, armed and trained Ethiopian troops are struggling to keep at bay is beyond me. Perhaps that is why the other countries have been reluctant to honour their pledges, although officially, a lack of A.U. funding and equipment is making the deployments difficult.

Richard Kavuma of the Uganda observer told me via e-mail: "The Ugandan Defense Ministry appears convinced that the other countries like Nigeria, Ghana and Burundi will eventually make good of their promise.

Each time there are reports of intensified fighting, the army comes out to stress that the Ugandan troops are not involved or affected. That, for me, shows that they are conscious of the fact that Ugandans are watching that space and would not like their soldiers to be killed needlessly.

I think therefore, it all depends on if the Ugandans can remain safe.

If the U[ganda]P[eoples]D[efense]F[orce] registers high numbers of causalities, then they will put pressure on other countries to speed up deployment."

Speaking to the press, Ugandan commander Katumba Wamala said of the lull in fighting: "It’s not yet a time to celebrate. Once they [the militiamen] come out [and] surrender, their lives will be protected. If that is not done, then we could have a situation where those small groups become a source of insecurity."

The latest path the government is taking, if anything makes an end to the violence less likely. The T.F.G. has appointed two of the warlords responsible for much of Somalia's anarchy between Siad Barre's ousting in 1991 and the U.I.C taking power in 2006. Abdi Hassan Awale, popularly known as Qaybdiid was appointed national police boss, and Mohamed Dheere, mayor of the gun-infested capital.

Dheere was the self-appointed local governor whose forces secured Jowhar, 90 km (55 miles) north of Mogadishu, as a temporary base for the interim government in 2005, after it was born out of tortuous peace talks in neighbouring Kenya. Qaybdiid was one of the last of a group of U.S.-backed warlords to surrender to the U.I.C. advances.

These people may head powerful militia's but rival clan militia's are playing their part in the insurgency because of the dominance of President Abudalahi Yusuf's Darod clan in the T.F.G., these appointments will only heighten the clan's role in the violence.

Richard Kavuma of the Uganda Observer told me his view of the appointments: "I think this is a catch22 situation. The ex-war lords are dangerous if outside government; but they are hard to satisfy when inside."

The other government attempt to end the violence that is also having the opposite effect is attempting to disarm the capital. Until Somalia's clans are given more of a say in the running of the country none of the clans are going to give up their arms and accept the domination of their rivals. Put simply: unless something drastic changes in Somalia, I am afraid that the violence could last longer than 15 years.

Wednesday, April 25, 2007

International Community: Divide and Function Part II

By Liam Bailey


For far too long the U.S. has set the foreign policy agenda, and the "international community" blindly and unquestioningly follows. But with decades of evidence that U.S. foreign policy serves nothing further than their own interests, it is time we opened our eyes and made up our own minds.

Furthermore, major organizations like the U.N, N.A.T.O, the E.U., and the Quartet are all failing miserably as peace-makers. Why? Because the U.S is impeding them from the front, determining efforts at conflict resolution based on its own interests. The "international community" backs their efforts and echoes their words. Really they should know better; the U.S using its influence to have the international community serving its interests is the root cause of most of the world's current conflicts, and one of the main reasons some of the longer-running conflicts haven't been resolved. When is it going to stop?

Part II: Chemical weapons and broken promises: Iran and Iraq past and present.

My last article displayed how President Reagan having the "international community serving America's interests in Afghanistan was directly responsble for the formation of Al Qaeda, and indirectly for the rise of the Taliban. But Afghanistan wasn't the only place where an extremist's actions coinciding with America's interests turned him into a poorly chosen ally. Or where their allegiance caused problems we must deal with today.

When the Islamic revolution removed the U.S. imposed Shah and swept the Khomeini regime to power in Iran, the taking of hostages in the U.S. embassy turned them from U.S. ally to enemy number one. The feeling was mutual.

It is alleged that Reagan and those behind his Presidential campaign drew out the hostage crisis to take the Presidency. Meanwhile the extremist in question, Saddam Hussein launched a massive invasion of Iran, seeking to capitalize on the chaos of the revolution. When Iran had repelled Saddam's forces and advanced well inside Iraq, the U.S. intervened to stop Iran beaking through Iraqi defences and threatening Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the security of U.S. oil supplies.

The first major move was America's removal of Iraq from the international sponsors of terrorism list as America began its program of support. All the while attempting to secure gaurantees from the Export-Import Bank. When they succeeded aconcentrated campaign by the U.S and the "international community" began to fund, arm and provide Saddam with dual-use technologies that could be used to produce chemical weapons. Donald Rumsfeld, then part of Reagan's cabinet visited Saddam on numerous occasions.

With U.S. support, including detailed intelligence on Iranian troop movements from spy-planes, Iraq was succesful in repelling the Iranian advance.

Even after the Iran-Iraq war, when Reagan had been replaced by Bush Snr, still oil-came before reason, and despite Saddam's use of chemical weapons against minority Kurds in his own country, the U.S. still favoured maintaining a good relationship with Iraq.

In 1991 Saddam's delusions of military strength and unconditional U.S. support lead to his invasion of Kuwait thus threatening Saudi Arabia. Saddam did what the U.S. sponsored him to stop Iran doing, suffice to say good relations were terminated from that day forward.

After brief attempts at diplomacy, U.N. and U.S. forces were deployed to expel Saddam's forces from Kuwait and protect Saudi Arabia. The stationing of U.S troops in Saudi Arabia, and its permanence when Saddam was expelled were the main reasons behind Bin Laden's Fatwas; religous rulings calling for the murder, first of American troops in Saudi Arabia (1996), then American's and their allies anywhere in the world (1998). The latter was, in effect, a declaration of war against the "international community". It was also two elements of U.S. foreign policy colliding – a collision still sending shock-waves through Iraq and the world.

Shortly before the U.S/U.N. offensive was launched, Bush Snr called to the Shiite (southern Iraq) and Kurdish (northern Iraq) communities, both badly oppressed by Saddam’s Sunni Regime, to revolt and overthrow their oppressive dictator – arguably inferring direct U.S support in this aim.

Sparked by the demoralized Iraqi troops returning from their defeat in Kuwait, the Shiite’s began a spontaneous uprising in the South, and later a planned Kurdish uprising began in the North. Unfortunately, most of Saddam’s forces escaped the fighting in Kuwait, and when American support never materialized, thousands of Shiite's and Kurds were displaced and killed as Saddam’s Republican guards crushed the revolts, and in the ensuing campaign of reprisals. To Iraq's Shiite's and Kurds this must have seemed like Bush Snr selfishly tricked them into revolting to draw Saddam’s forces from Kuwait – making the job easier and lessening the casualties for U.S/U.N. forces. So, it is understandable that they would miss-trust the U.S. from then on, as well as feeling anger and hatred at the thousands killed.

So, one can imagine their response when Bush Jnr dropped thousands of leaflets making calls for a similar uprising, to "win the battle for hearts and minds" in the run-up to the 2003 invasion. That battle was already lost.

Shiite and Kurd miss-trust of the U.S would have been multiplied by the media hype surrounding Bush’s reasons for wanting to go to war in Iraq: Sexed-up dossiers and 45-minute lies, drawn attention to by a media presenting the true reason for the war as Bush’s desire to control Iraq’s rich oil reserves. This would have turned more Iraqi’s against their liberators.

I believe that even if U.S forces alone had advanced north in March 1991, on the tail of Saddam’s retreating Iraqi forces, the Shiite revolt in the south, and Kurdish in the North would ultimately have lead to Iraq fighting a war on two fronts, and therefore I believe being easily defeated. Furthermore, if this was done and Saddam overthrown then U.S forces would have had to deal with only the Sunni minority mistrust, and resentment. Being followers of Saddam, this would and has happened in any case.

Strong support from two of the three rival groups in Iraq, one Iraq’s predominant ethnic group, would almost certainly have forced the Sunni minority to take part in the new democratic proceedings, (a lot sooner than they did in the current occupation) for fear of being left out of future decisions in the rebuilding of their country.

The only reason I can think of for Bush Snr not finishing the job in 1991 was fear of Iran giving America a taste of its own medicine in response to Reagan's support of Saddam's killing thousands of Iranians (and Kurds) with western supplied chemical weapons.

To this day, a large portion of Iranian society must feel outraged by this, especially those who lost family members in chemical attacks and other battles, and especially Iranian intelligence.

So now, a figurehead of Iranian hatred is occupying the country next-door, Iraq, against the will of increasing numbers of Iraqis. Only a fool would believe Iran's claims that it isn't assisting Iraq's ever-violent insurgency.

As for their nuclear belligerency, Iran is already enriching Uranium and advancing at an alarming rate, why should they stop the program as a precondition for talks on stopping the program?

To maintain such a precondition one could suggest the U.S. doesn't want Iran to stop, it wants to go to war. The "international community" must begin forging its own path to avoid such an un-mitigating catastrophe as another major Middle East conflict.

Sunday, March 25, 2007

Pacifying Somalia: United in Extremism

The War on Terror is preventing security in Somalia

By Liam Bailey

When they took on the Transitional Federal Government and won control of most of southern and central Somalia last year, the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) did something that many before them had tried and failed. They brought peace and security from complete chaos and almost constant violence in areas under their control in southern and central Somalia after July 2006. For the first time in fifteen years children could go to school safely and hospital's could treat the sick instead of wounded. And with no gunmen on the streets to charge truck drivers fees for safe passage food prices dropped.

The previous 15 years of violence had filled a power vacuum left by the ousting of Dictator Siad Barre, as Somalia's many warlords, clans and sub-clans vied for a bigger piece of the pie. The Islamic Courts within the union that were predominant in their sweep to power followed Salafism, a hard-line strain of Islam widely associated with extremism and terrorism.

Thus the UIC became another target in the War on Terror, and they were ousted by Ethiopia at the bequest of the U.S. Of course the TFG played their part, too. When they beat a hasty retreat, peace and security for Somalis went with them. In view of Somalia's history of inter-clan violence an extreme faith in the country's religion is perhaps needed to supersede the tribal traditions of warlord rule.

The current violence is a good example of this. On the surface it is a UIC insurgency waging the holy war they promised against the Transitional Federal Government (TFG)and their Ethiopian backers. In reality it is more complex. The latest fighting has been sparked by a government and Ethiopian push to disarm Somalia ahead of unification talks. Given Somalia's history of tribal violence and being ruled by the gun it is surely foolish for the government to expect the tribes to give up their arms before any unification agreements have been reached. This has made the insurgency more popular than it neccesarily would have been. The UIC is no doubt taking a big part in the violence against the government but perhaps an equal part is other clans fighting to hold on to their guns.

The TFG's leader and Somalia's president Abdullahi Yusuf is a member of the Darod clan. The other clans believe he is favouring the Darod economically and politically. The TFG is made up of many warlords from other tribes. As no unification agreements have been reached and the clansmen's loyalty is still with their clan before the TFG, there is division within the government. The saying goes: divide and conquer. The TFG's division would therefore explain why the relatively unified UIC took control of Somalia so easily.

It is a farce to expect rival warlords and clansmen cobbled together in Kenya as the TFG to govern Somalia without any unification, after years of inter-clan violence. The UIC is of course made up of rival clans but they have their extremist belief in the Islamic faith in common, giving them a unity which they have proven capable of governance.

Somalia's Prime Minister is a member of Mogadishu's most prominent, Hawiye clan. The same clan that most of the UIC come from. Hopes were raised of an end to the recent violence when it was reported that elders of the Hawiye clan had met with TFG and Ethiopian leaders and agreed a truce, whereby forces from both sides would withdraw from the front lines. Even if both sides kept to their agreement it would not have stopped the violence from any of the other clans, sub-clans or Hawiye members fighting with the UIC and therefore not under the ceasefire.

The violence stopped for a short period before resuming for a third day of heavy clashes. Hawiye sub-clans and/or militias, not consulted by the elders before agreeing the ceasefire and with competing interests are reported to have been responsible for the restart of fighting. The latest violence has killed around 24 people and hundreds have been wounded.

1500 Ugandan People's Defence Force troops are in Somalia as the first deployment of a planned 8000 African Union force. It is unclear when troops pledged by Ghana, Nigeria, Malawi and Burundi will be deployed. At any rate Somalis have a history of anger against foreign forces on their soil, as they showed with protests at the outset of the Ethiopian invasion.

Their feelings toward the foreign intervention were displayed again in Mogadishu Mar 21., as an angry mob of militiamen and civilians, including women burned the bodies of uniformed soldiers and dragged their corpses through the streets in barbaric jubilation. The scenes echoed the bodies of U.S. soldiers dragged through the Mogadishu streets in 1993 after their Black Hawk helicopter was shot down in a failed attempt to capture a warlord. Although reports said the bodies were of two Ethiopian and two TFG soldiers, neither the Ethiopian military nor the TFG have confirmed their troops were involved. However the African Union has said its troops were not active in the area.

The violence is not limited to the capital, according to a Relief Web report:

One car was destroyed and at least six people were injured March 18, when four cars transporting UN staff from Baidoa to Mogadishu overran a land mine near Afgoye checkpoint. It is not clear whether the explosion was targeted and no one was killed in the attack. The Mogadishu-Beletweyne road remains highly insecure due to sporadic ambushes. Several other roads remain unsafe, with a high number of roadblocks on the road from Lower and Middle Juba to Mogadishu.

In short, Somalia has returned to the lawlessness and violence it was suffering before the UIC uprising mid-2006.

The U.N. and U.S. have praised the TFG's scheduling of reconciliation talks for April 19. However, many of the UIC players considered vital for a solution remain in exile in Yemen and Europe. The powerful Ayr sub-clan, thought responsible for much of the UIC's military strength are also claiming they have been excluded from participating in the government, which is dominated by rival clans. With so many clans and sub-clans, so many conflicting interests, a history of failed negotiations, broken agreements and such deep rooted hatred for the government, it is unlikely reconciliation talks called for by the government will succeed, and if they do it is doubtful the agreements will be kept.

The UIC have proven they can stabilize and govern Somalia. The insurgency's growing popularity among Somalis proves the Somali people didn't resent the UIC's strict rule as much as they do the current government. Instead of reconciliation talks there should be a vote of the Somali people. Call it a referendum or an election, call it what you like but give them their say. It is the Somali people who have to live under the rule of their government and it is the Somali people who should decide what that government is. Certainly not people enjoying the absolute freedom of a long successful democracy.

Given that the only security Somalis have enjoyed was under the UIC it is likely they would vote their way. In that vote they would also be achieving what outside attempts to create a central government had in the Transitional National Government and its successor the TFG, a movement encompassing more than one Somali clan. Where they succeed over the failed attempts is the clans they encompass have the power to pacify Somalia.

The Somali people have suffered long enough. Their suffering should not be prolonged because their security infringes on a war that has nothing to do with them.